Oncologists Face a Minor Shortage by 2020
Without a doubt as the populace ages the need for oncology services will increase. The only question to ask is will there be funds to pay for this larger need and where will it come from in this economy? The previous arguement between the Republicans and Democrats over health care really centers on whether it should have happened at all, and if it does who will pay for the additional 30,000,000 people to be insured.
Concerns have been expressed that the price will be paid for by cuts to Medicaid and Social Security. Any cuts to these programs by representatives have long been considered political suicide. To ward off any attacks from skeptics of their program the administration states:
“The Act will protect and preserve Medicare as a commitment to America's seniors. …The Act takes important steps to make sure that we can keep the commitment of Medicare for the next generation of seniors. Medicare is a sacred trust with America's seniors, and this Act preserves it.” I can feel the fondness.
Another attack is that the program will increase the fiscal obligation on state and the federal government but they counter that; “It will save thousands of dollars in drug costs for Medicare beneficiaries by closing the coverage gap called the 'donut hole'.” Doctors, nurses and hospitals will be incentivized so they will increase care and reduce unnecessary errors that hurt patients. They even plan that this program will save the public money by “ending massive overpayments to insurance companies that cost American taxpayers many billions of dollars per year.”
Realistically, we can assume it will cost more than they imagine, and the savings will be smaller. However, it is plentifully clear that the rise in health care costs is unsustainable and the current economic climate is exacerbating the problem. When millions lose their careers, they also lose their health benefits, a dire situation for many who are the most vulnerable, the young, old and those suffering from poverty.
Growing Demand
Recent research states the number of oncologists has increased more than twofold over the past two decades, supply is purported to only go up by 20% between now and 2020. Demand for oncology services is expected to grow by 48% during the same period of time. Predictions were based on current cancer rates and delivery patterns applied to the expected U.S. population in 2020. Without a dramatic change in cancer care treatment or delivery between now and 2020, the nation is will face an acute shortage of oncologists.*
There are about 13,000 oncologists working in the United States. Over fifty percent of all oncologists are aged 50 or older and will be 65 or more by the year 2020. About 500 fellows a year complete an oncology fellowship, and oncology program directors report limited plans to increase the number of training slots between now and the 2010-11 academic year.*
Oncology traditionally provides care to one segment of the populace, the growing people of people aged 65 or older. Also, as treatment has become more victorious there are more cancer survivors to care for for extended periods of time which contributes to an increase in need and demand for oncologists. In fact, Cancer survivors make up a significant proportion of overall oncologist visits. *
As a result, the quantity of and want for oncologists is projected to move from a general state of equilibrium in 2005 to a state of minor shortage in 2020, with visit demand growing at a much quicker pace than the available visit supply.*
Healthcare Reform
Even with the health bill conclusively signed into law its effect on our health care is not known. By 2014 there will be an amplified in the enrollment into health care. This escalation when, added in with the long term aging of the population, should push demand for services and therefore expense higher. However, no one yet knows what will happen to reimbursement rates from Medicare and this new program. The question is will there be a cut of reimbursement levels for different specialties by Medicaid and this new program that may alternatively become a decreasing factor of the income of all specialties including Oncologists and related specialties/subspecialties.
*American Society of Clinical Oncology commissioned the Center for Workforce Studies at the Association of American Medical Colleges
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